Poder, incerteza e heurísticas: contribuições da psicologia cognitiva para o estudo da tomada de decisões nas Relações Internacionais

Power, uncertainty and heuristics: contributions from cognitive psychology to the study of decision-making in International Relations

  • Bruno Maciel Santos Pontifícia Universidade Católica de Minas Gerais
Palavras-chave: poder, incerteza, tomada de decisão, racionalidade circunscrita, teorias de RI

Resumo

A falta de consenso sobre uma definição de poder e sobre como lidar com a incerteza nas Relações Internacionais são problemas antigos nessa disciplina. Este artigo apresenta algumas contribuições da psicologia cognitiva relacionadas ao uso de heurísticas decisórias para as discussões acerca do conceito de poder e relacionadas à incerteza no campo das Relações Internacionais. Para tanto, realiza-se uma revisão das visões divergentes acerca do conceito do poder e da incerteza entre os três paradigmas mais influentes nas Relações Internacionais, apresentando como cada um deles define esses dois conceitos e quais as implicações teóricas dessas visões. Apesar de várias definições operacionais, é possível que o conceito formal de poder apresentado por Dahl (1957) seja utilizado como referência para as quatro faces do poder apresentadas. No entanto, essa definição implica necessariamente algum grau de incerteza nas relações de poder, relacionadas à informação, seja pela sua disponibilidade, pela sua confiabilidade, pela ambiguidade ou pela sua subjetividade. Sendo assim, apresenta-se as heurísticas decisórias como forma de lidar com a tomada de decisão em situações de incerteza envolvendo relações de poder, a partir de uma racionalidade circunscrita e ecológica. Essa abordagem é uma, dentre várias possíveis, e não busca impor termos absolutos para a discussão, nem negar as várias contribuições teóricas feitas pelas demais abordagens discutidas, mas sim destacar alguns pontos negligenciados e apresentar novas possibilidades de análise no campo das Relações Internacionais.

 

 

Abstract: The lack of agreement about a definition of power and how to deal with uncertainty in the International Relations are long known problems of the discipline. This article presents some contributions from cognitive psychology related to the use of decision heuristics to the discussions about the concept of power and related to uncertainty in the field of International Relations. For this, it revises the different visions about the concept of power and uncertainty among the three most influential paradigms in International Relations, presenting how each one of them defines these two concepts and what are the theoretical implications for these visions. Despite the many operational definitions, it is possible that the formal concept provided by Dahl (1957) be taken as a reference for the four faces of power presented here. Nonetheless, this definition necessarily embeds some degree of uncertainty in power relations as a matter of information, be it because of its availability, its reliability, its ambiguity or its subjectivity. In this sense, decision heuristics are presented as a way to deal with decision-making under uncertainty related to power relationships, from a bounded and ecological rationality perspective. This approach is just one, among many, and does not seek to impose absolute terms to the discussion, nor denies the many theoretical contributions made by the other approaches discussed here, but points out new possibilities for analysis and shed light to neglected terms for debate in the field of International Relations.

Keywords: Power; Uncertainty; Decision-Making; Bounded Rationality; International Relations Theories.

 

 

Recebido em: outubro/2018.

Aprovado em: junho/2019.

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Publicado
2019-08-28
Seção
Artigos