Argentina e Brasil: Lições de uma Transição Hegemônica Sul-Americana

The Argentina-Brazil Regional Power Transition

  • Luis Leandro Schenoni University of Notre Dame
Palavras-chave: Brasil, Argentina, Transição hegemômica, América do Sul, Transição de poder

Resumo

Quatro décadas se passaram desde que o equilíbrio do poder argentino-brasileiro no Cone Sul deu lugar a uma indiscutível primazia do Brasil. A natureza pacífica e cooperativa dessa transição de poder regional representa um enigma interessante para as teorias estruturalistas atuais que preveem as crescentes tensões entre os Estados Unidos e a China Por que alguns países aceitam seu declínio de uma forma mais branda, como a Argentina fez nesse momento? Neste artigo, ofereço um modelo formal e uso a técnica de rastreamento de processos para demonstrar que a principal reviravolta cooperativa nessa relação ocorreu entre o final da década de 1970 e o início da década de 1990. Minhas conclusões sugerem, ao contrário da narrativa predominante, que a cooperação entre a Argentina e o Brasil não foi produto da democratização. Em contraste, o caso sul-americano sugere que as transições pacíficas de poder ocorrem quando os custos do confronto são altos e as coalizões de política externa são redefinidas no estado em declínio.

 

 

Abstract: Almost four decades have passed since the Argentina-Brazil balance of power gave way to a Brazilian uncontested primacy in the Southern Cone. The peaceful and cooperative nature of this regional power transition poses an interesting puzzle for structural theories and those concerned with the US-China transition. Why do certain countries accept accommodation more leniently, like Argentina did? I offer an explanatory model and use process tracing to show that key cooperative turns in this bilateral relationship—during the late 1970s and early 1990s—required concurrent structural changes, both at the international and domestic levels. My conclusions suggest, against the prevalent narrative, that cooperation between Argentina and Brazil was not a product of democracy. Instead, peaceful power transitions take place when the costs of confrontation are high and social coalitions are largely redefined in the declining state.

Key-words: South America; Argentina; Brazil; Transition of power; Hegemonic transition.

 

 

Recebido em: Agosto/2018.

Aprovado em: Setembro/2018.

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Publicado
2018-11-12